Management said the next few days would be “crucial” in deciding a third inclusion while a new health council is scheduled for Wednesday.
How is the virus currently circulating in our regions?
The incidence determines the number of positive cases in the last 7 days per 100,000 inhabitants. It is a very good way to measure the degree of circulation of the virus at a given time in a territory.
This week, the incidence continued to increase in the departments of the Auvergne Rhône-Alpes, which saw its curve reversed in the last week of December.
According to the latest data from Public Health France which ended on Thursday 21 January, the incidence is on average 222 in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region (+11 in three days).
The latest record numbers this year in the Loire and Haute-Loire
The strongest increases can be seen in the Loire and Haute-Loire, 255.1 and 267.5, respectively. Bets well above the national (205) and regional averages and records in these two departments since the beginning of the year.
We have to go back to November last year to find a more active circulation of the virus.
Still very high in the Jurassic, where there are more than 311 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants, the incidence continues its decline, which began only ten days ago. And a very slow decline, since the frequency is still as high as in the holidays.
The entire Burgundy Franche-Comté region is benefiting from this shift due to the curfew and the efforts of the population, but the “improvement” remains a nap, according to ARS, the number of tests has significantly decreased in recent weeks.
The “British” variety present in the Côté-d’Or
The circulation of new variants of the virus, especially the so-called “British” variant, which is much more contagious, a case that was identified on January 21 in the Côte-d’Or, raises fears of an upsurge in the epidemic.
Hospital still under pressure
Among our five departments, Jura is the only one to experience the advanced curfew since 2 January. After reaching a peak in hospital admissions on January 15 with 284 hospitalized patients, the ward began a slow decline in hospital admissions and reached 246 on January 25.
But the health pressure on the health care system is still significant with almost 1,800 people hospitalized due to serious illnesses in hospitals in the region, according to the latest press release from the Regional Health Agency.
In the other departments that have experimented with the curfew at 18 in just one week, it is still too early to assess the effect of an advanced curfew.
If a small improvement is also visible in the Loire and Haute-Loire, for the Rhône and Ain wards, the numbers are increasing (with 947 and 264 patients on Covid-19 admitted on 25 January, respectively).
A decline in the death curve except in the Rhône
Rhône continues its dramatic increase in Covid-19 mortality (+80). The department has passed the barrier for 2000 deaths from Covid in hospitals (2120 deaths as of January 25).
For Jura, the advanced curfew effect seemed to bend the death curve, but it began to rise again this past week with 329 people dying from Covid in hospital on January 25 (+26 in one week).
In Ain, Loire and Haute-Loire, the number of people who have died from Covid has also increased in one week (+18 in Ain, +16 in Loire, +17 in Haute-Loire), but the numbers seem to have stopped in the last the days.
So a curfew effect? The indicators are still fragile in our departments, as everywhere in France.
If we observe levels or changes in the number of hospitalizations or deaths, the spread of new, more infectious variants will change further, or even increase the balance.
“The verdict on the effect of the strengthened curfew will fall, according to this prime minister, this week, and decisions will be made immediately.”